When I posted two or three weeks ago that an American supported Israeli air strike was possibly eminent because the necessary assets had moved in place, I still lacked the reason as to why just now. This tells us why it will happen now. Assume
will arrange to be standing by for this one and to also be in the know. They may be selling a reactor, but they want a nuclear weapon in these fool’s hands no more than we do. Think of the rich targets for Islam in Russia . Russia
A surgical strike is likely to happen this week. The purpose will be to smash up the reactor itself. The only interesting question is how the Iranian air force will be neutralized while the attack goes in, particularly if they wish to have a back up wave. I assume the
will not be visible. US
In the medium term, regime control of the population will likely spiral out of control because the population will immediately blame the regime for bringing this attack on to themselves. Discontent is also likely to become visible in the armed forces because of the regime’s reckless behavior and proven futility. In short, the regime will be destabilized.
Beyond what we have just described, they have no creditable response.
I note from this map that the reactor is on the Persian Gulf itself. Any attack seems way more difficult and may target the secondary assets instead. In the event, we have reached a decision point.
Russia's Loading of Nuke Fuel Into Plant Means Aug. 21 Deadline for Israeli Attack Iran
Friday, 13 Aug 2010 01:41 PM
By: David A. Patten
News that Russia will load nuclear fuel rods into an Iranian reactor has touched off a countdown to a point of no return, a deadline by which Israel would have to launch an attack on Iran's Bushehr reactor before it becomes effectively "immune" to any assault, says former Bush administration U.N. Ambassador John R. Bolton.
Once the fuel rods are loaded, Bolton told Fox News on Friday afternoon, "it makes it essentially immune from attack by
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin declared in March that
The story immediately became front-page news in
"If they're going to do it that's the window that they have,"
"So most people think that neither
Bolton cited the 1981 Israeli attack on Saddam Hussein's Osirak reactor outside
"So if it's going to happen in Bushehr it has to happen before the fuel rods go in,"
The conversation that touched off the de facto deadline for Israeli military action was a telephone conversation with wire services involving Sergei Novikov, a spokesman for Rosatom, the Russian Energy State Nuclear Corp.
Novikov said: "The fuel will be loaded on Aug 21. This is the start of the physical launch” of the reactor.
"From that moment the Bushehr plant will be officially considered a nuclear-energy installation," Novikov said, adding that the head of Rosatom, Sergei Kiriyenko, will visit Bushehr Aug. 21 to conduct a ceremony for the event.
"And in the normal operation of this reactor, in just a fairly short period of time, you could get substantial amounts of plutonium to use as nuclear weapons,"
The developments mean Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu soon may face a stark choice: Attack the Bushehr reactor in the next 8 days, or allow it to become operational despite the certainty it would greatly enhance
Russian leaders have said the Bushehr reactor project is being closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog group. According to
According to Russian officials,
The failure to demand it be shut down began in the Bush years, he said, and continues with the Obama administration "under what I believe is the mistaken theory that
"I don't think
U.N. sanctions against